1, 48-57. Sure enough, they got a run back into Finnish territory against an unguarded goal. The plot you show may be data of events that came after the daily NASA updated, in which case they would be unvalidated? The second one was probably the explosion that destroyed the dome. You can easily see a number of fumaroles around the base of the caldera walls. Others appear to have occurred from a vent, taking place in an environment similar to the current situation of a crater with a lake. Near the summit, Volcan village was buried under 80 cm of ash, but further away, Nicapa only had 7 centimeters. The pre-1982 peak was 1260m tall, consisting of a lava dome that filled a crater formed by a previous eruption about 220,000 years ago. So that’s El Chichon, Hudson 1991 and Pinatubo (main event) for which we have no images of the eruption column of the climactic eruptions, so the largest explosive eruption we’ve properly “seen” is St Helens! Could we have known that Agung would erupt but not explode? One suggestion is that this ridge is a fault which allows water to penetrate down. 2018 sees a genious researcher discovering the cure for cancer, malaria, aids, and other diseases, with one single thing. Apr. VW is a higher education, k-12, and public outreach project of the. Japan’s phreatic explosions are clearly an issue, but the victims were all close to the crater. The original lava dome had a volume of 0.16km3; the new, 300-meter deep crater may add another 0.1km3. But I don’t know where this plot comes from. That is quite an obscure fund and if there is very little volume in a fund, it can respond dramatically. Still though, a VEI 5 sounds a bit on the small side for being dormant for over 1000 years, maybe the main events are still in the future. The caldera is about a kilometer wide and a few hundred meters deep. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 175, pp. This is a view of the El Chichon caldera, formed during the very explosive eruptions of late March and early April of 1982. There is an important point to make here, though. El Chichón volcano in southern Mexico forms a broad symmetrical cone with a diameter of 10 km at itsbase and is capped by a 600 m wide crater containing a 80 m high andesitic lava dome. One returning question here is what is the reference forfhow deep the quake is it the sealevel? This was an important missed opportunity. end of rant…. http://albay.gov.ph/mayon-volcano-bulletin-06-february-2018-0800-a-m/, It might be worth looking at the last eruption data to see if there was also inflation throughout the event. In the mean time, the Mexico emergency plans had sprung into action but, being untested, had ran into some problems. The time of these devastating pyroclastic flows is unclear. The outer crater, the Somma, is dated to 250 thousand years ago. Best! A swarm of earthquakes has started La Palma in the vicinity of Tanganasoga. Too bad, the Finnish goalie was phenomenal. Up to the present time (day 12 at 11:00 TU) a total of 9 earthquakes have been located, with magnitudes between 2.2 and 2.6 mbLg and depth around 30 km. I guess starman is going to outlive us all then…, I do note that the car needed quite a long push to get going.. could have done with a service. It kept the temperatures too cool for a strong El Nino and too warm for a volcanic winter – but just about right for the time. Geol. A geologist, Frederich Mülleried, visited and he found that in the moat between the dome and the crater rim there was strong fumarole activity. At this time, visibility in Ostuacan became reduced to about 20 meters. Sulphur is a bit of a common thread in the area: 60 million years earlier, the impact that killed the dinosaurs has been so devastating in part because it hit the sulphur-rich rocks of the Yucatan. When currency collapse may be a GOOD THING, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43030677. Scary story! Do you have a link to the source of this information? The main risk nowadays is in the forecasting, and this is a very difficult problem. But it may be based on a long term trend rather than current inflation. 4 was the last major explosive event at El Chichón. Of course this was just before the strong global warming started to dominate the climate – it was considerably cooler than the current climate. And that is the message, loud and clear, of El Chichon. The explosive eruption of El Chichón in 1982 formed a new 1-km (0.6 mi)-wide crater that later was partially filled by a steaming acidic lake. Confusion reigned among the local population. Everyone should be very thankful that i didn’t win….. and don’t have to read my post on how to make fry bread….. cause that’s about my only expertise… . El Chichón, also known as Chichonal, is an active volcano in Francisco León, north-western Chiapas, Mexico.El Chichón is part of a geologic zone known as the Chiapanecan Volcanic Arc.El Chichón is a complex of domes with a tuff ring, made of ejected volcanic material, located between the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt and the Central America Volcanic Arc. The eruption cloud was carried west, reaching the Philippines in 10 days and circling the globe at … The story becomes more complex at this point, because after this the seismic records begin to diverge from local reports and papers. It’s heading in that direction. But I would be surprised if it becomes more than that. If the acceleration tank can survive impact at terminal velocity, good, If not, once the apex of the trajectory is reached the passenger would need to be ejected, then deploy a parachute to land safely. But I don’t know. It also required a presidential order which took a day to obtain. Some were stopped by the outer crater wall, but the gaps in this wall let the flow enter the steep valleys. The remainder must have come from excavation of the surface beyond the new crater, and from subsidence caused by the emptying of the magma chamber. El Chichon had three Plinian eruptions, each sending gas and dust to the stratosphere. There was over 2 billion of $ worth of inverse volatility funds on the market (which were basically wiped out). The 1982 event was fairly typical in size: this volcano does VEI 4’s and 5, but would have difficulty with larger eruptions. Maybe hekla could make an appearance with little warning as it tends to do, or maybe all the hype the media has given to agung might actually be justified this year. Espindola, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 23 (1984) 11—37: The 1982 eruptions of El Chichon volcano, Mexico: stratigraphy of pyroclastic deposits, S. De la Cruz-Reyna and A. L. Martin Del Pozzo, Geofísica Internacional 48 (1), 21-31 (2009): The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano, Mexico: Eyewitness of the disaster, R. I. Tilling, Geofísica internacional 48 (1) (2009): El Chichón’s “surprise” eruption in 1982: Lessons for reducing volcano risk. Further fatalities occurred to the north, caused by the fires which had been ignited by the hot ash. Monitoring has changed beyond recognition since 1982. Is this volcanic, weather, or human activity? https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/. Some strong ones at Oerafjellajokul, Iceland. As much as the click-bait coverage by the UK tabloids is annoying for anyone looking for real details, does this generate a market to employ Black Swan hunters? My opinion? By that time, the cloud had spread north-eastward, over 100 kilometer in diameter, and had reached well into the stratosphere, 27 km high. But in fact, rather little effect was seen in global temperatures, with at most a small short-lived dip. +300 earthquakes between 1,9 e 3,6 in 5 or 6 hours. Heinlein smiles.. is it actually going to mars? Huaynaputina is another ‘low-prominence’ mountain that has a nasty habit of saying hello every few thousand years or so. But the precise relation is not clear. The tephra amounted to 2.2 km3. Jon Frimann said they were ‘frost quakes’ and sure enough they’ve pretty much all disappeared now. Given that 2008 resulted in a shell game that moved toxic assets around and never processed the toxicity, 2008 was just put on hold. consisting of a standard Tesla Roadster automobile and a spacesuit-wearing It lies mid-way between Tuxtla Gutierrez, the capital of the state of Chiapas, and Villahermosa, capital of Tabasco, each about 70 kilometer away. Thanks for the article. They stated in their report that there was ‘a high volcanic risk’. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 175 (2008) 444–458: Hazard map of El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, México: Constraints posed by eruptive history and computer simulations, H. Sigurdsson, S.N. If there was maybe mayon is slowly building for either a big flank eruption somewhere or a big caldera event in the more distant future. El Chichón last erupted in 1982, in one of the most important volcanic events of the 20th century. As an aside, compared to previous centuries, Indonesia played only a minor role in the 20th century. The eruptions of 1400 AD (B in the table below), 700 AD (D) and 1900 BC (K) may have been a little larger than the 1982 event. It really is the best way to illustrate what the beach balls represent. Last Eruption Geological Information and Type of Volcano To get an early pyroclastic flow, either the eruption column needs to collapse very fast, or the flow must come directly from the crater. A hydroelectric plant further downstream still had people working in it: three people suffered bad burns from the water and one person died. Volcanic or weather related (there are some thunderstorms in the area)? It has however been exhibiting harmonic and volcanic tremors as well, so i do not claim its rain related with 100% certainty. The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information Using phase diagrams for sediments, basalt and peridotite, and the … March 28, 1982, was the fateful date. The deposits contain evidence for water: this was a major phreatic event, perhaps when rising magma had reached the groundwater table. Both types of flows occured at El Chichon. The climate effect is often mentioned. One of the domes caused the collapse of the southwestern rim of the Somma crater, and thus formed after the Somma. Thomas has won the right to write a post! It sits between two volcanic arcs -- the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt and the Guatemalan Belt-- and in a region with few active volcanoes.Prior to the 1982 eruption, the volcano had not erupted since ca. But other evidence suggest that they happened during the previous eruption, in the early morning of April 3rd, rather than the subsequent evening. To me, it’s a cross between darts and pool, but you get to stand on the table. I think we need something like 7° warming too see the top of Oraefajokull without ice. However, claims that this volcano could have played a role in the collapse of the Mayan empire seem overstated. Much worse had happened elsewhere. The plans came into action on April 1. The forest was -and remains- gone. 40+ blocked shots in that one game. El Chichon, Mexico Location: 17.4N, 93.2W Elevation: 3,478 feet (1,060 m) This is a view of the floor of the El Chichon caldera. My guess is on false detections. Something Long And Complicated selfie (El Chichon, Mexico) Today marks the 70th anniversary of the eruption of El Chichon volcano in Chiapas, Mexico, one of the most famous volcanoes in the world. Away from that, perhaps not. in a heliocentric orbit having a perihelion of 0.99 au and aphelion In short, a huge amount of $ has built up over the last 10 years that has ridden on inverse correlations of stocks and bonds. Various smaller peaks on the slopes around El Chichon are now seen as related volcanic ‘lateral’ domes, emplaced since El Chichon began to develop. Right, I understand all this, but there is more to it, and the situation is only starting to develop. fitting between the Falcon Heavy upper stage and the Tesla is etched with new post is up. There were 10 or more earthquakes per day, at a depth of some 5 kilometer. These two events became conflated in the reports. Two rivers collect water from El Chichon: the Platanar river from the NE flank of the volcano and the Susnubac– Magdalena river from the SW flank. Water-loaded flows will have temperatures up to 100 C, while dry flows can be much hotter: charcoaled trees after a pyroclastic flow are evidence that there was less water. Maybe the actual eruption will be too, small basalt eruption possibly on the flank, and then a much bigger eruption in the caldera. It is worth pointing out that the rainfall in this area can be phenomenal (perhaps explaining the hydro-magmatic nature of this volcano), and erosion rates are therefore also high. But the overall orientation of the P-T intersection alludes me. Assuming it remains on an Earth-crossing orbit (so nothing perturbs it out of its orbit) I get some 100,000 years. We would know much more about any volcanic activity near population. The eruption lasted a few hours. Hopefully this doesn’t turn out to be anything bigger, but we shall see. The SIL equivalent of fake news . When monitoring at Bardarbunga improved, the 0.1-km depth disappeared and they were mostly a couple of km deep. It is a remote andesitic stratovolcano in the Modern Chiapanecan Volcanic Arc (MCVA) with an ago of ~0.2 Ma years. I can imagine the navigation system getting a bit confused! Neither was there much suggestion that it should be: this volcano seemed safely dormant or extinct, and Mexico has many much more urgent volcanoes. A significant fraction of large eruptions come from volcanoes without a living history of such. Weather satellites showed that the ejecta had again penetrated the stratosphere, and a huge sulphur-bearing cloud began to spread. And the actual eruption may still come as a surprise, even when the risk was known. In 2018, the narrative has shifted however as Quantitative Easing is starting to end and interest rates are rising, which now makes it so bonds have a positive correlation with equities, which completely screws up the system’s dependence on these volatility products. The CO2 greenhouse has exactly the opposite effect: the ground layer warms but the shielding of the ground radiation cools the upper atmosphere.) As of yesterday, for El Mayon, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reports that 16380 families remain evacuated (perhaps 60,000 people in total), as well as 608 cattle, 574 carabao, 7 horses and 14 goats. Sci. Since the market is up nearly 25% since a year ago, we would need to see a 6K drop to really erase the recent growth. A dike extended 14 kilometer southwest, following a fault line: this happened 1.1 million years ago. Giggle has it as blowing, although if you stick vulkanic either side it then translates as either gusts or blasts. Guess, until yesterday, the Eagles winning the Super Bowl was a Black Swan event. It seems to have started without any warning. There’s probably lots of volcanoes like el chichon that are underestimated until they have a big or damaging eruption, then study shows they have a long history of big events. By coincidence, a strong El Nino had just started and this counteracted the cooling effect. The eruption was now largely over, apart from a minor event on April 5, but the impact continued. Another one: these actually happened: a landslide off the coast if Norway stirred a giant tsunami. El Chichon is unique in location and in the composition of its ejecta. Let’s GO! How long does it take for the glacier to fill in a crater formed during an eruption? But locally, it could have wiped out communities living along the rivers, and over much of the east of Mexico and the Yucatan it could have given a troublesome covering of ash. Math does that. The Geico cavemen sweeping the ice was odd… and the Sumo figure skater made me look twice. ~1.7 au. Thankfully, Yellowstone is out of the cup, but this is a nice overview of geological recent activity in the Pacific Northwest. Bull.116, pp. Funny. The US won, but I sure didn’t expect it. VC does not do disaster stories. Here two volcanologists are examining a tree that was surrounded and killed by the pyroclastic flow. JPL reports the following on the space Tesla: Dummy payload from first launch of SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch vehicle I grock that if white wraps around shaded it means compression, while the opposite is extension; and if your can see the intersection of the P and T axises, that means lateral movement, slip or strike, I think, as opposed to thrust or subduction. Measurements from recent eruptions such as Mount St. Helens, Washington (1980), El Chichon, Mexico (1982), and Mount Pinatubo, Philippines (1991), clearly show the importance of sulfur aerosols in modifying climate, warming the stratosphere, and cooling the troposphere. In fact it wasn't called "El Chichon" until the spanish speaking news media started reporting on it after the 1982 eruption. 10 people were killed and many more injured. Before the 1982 eruption, there was no definitive information about historical activity, although some locals referred to an eruption about 100 years before. Thaw followed by rapidly dropping temperatures will set the conditions right for frost quakes. I wonder how much warning local PNG authorities had that something was up? Early papers attribute them to this final, huge explosion. The total eruption released about 1.1 cubic kilometers of material (dense rock equivalent), or roughly the same as St. Helens in 1980 and a new crater that was a kilometer across and 300 meters deep was formed (an acidic lake has since formed in the crater; see below). On the other hand, the bitcoin saga shows that too many people are desperate to make some money and will put it into anything. The relative calm also encouraged people to try to return to their homes. People close enough to know what happened did not survive. What indicates oblique or normal? For 90 minutes the earth remained quiet, until, just before midnight, at 11:32pm local time (5:32 GMT), the mountain exploded in what has been called a phraetoplinian event, i.e. The cold debris flow was probably crater rock fragmented by the explosion. And I had the pleasure of visiting this volcano in 2010. Are there known faults and how are they oriented? Prior to the 1982 eruptions the summit of the volcano consisted of a large lava dome within a shallow caldera. In this photo you can see the gullies that have been cut into the 1982 pyroclastic flows. In a move that astounds me, towards the end the Finns traded out their goalie for an extra attacker to try and force a tie. Well, there is a classic photo of the paroxysmal blast from Bezymianny which is available (think it’s on the GVP site). so what does the ‘25,000’th commentor win???? This color is partly due to the huge amount of dissolved minerals in the acidic water, and partly due to lots of fine, light-colored ashy sediment that is continuously stirred up by boiling areas. I wouldn’t worry too much about the drop, it may be the largest point drop, but it was only a 4% correction. Their initial hit, "Viva Tirado", was a jazzy soul rock rendition of Gerald Wilson's original song about a bullfighter. The latest of these was the Guayabel cone, 3 kilometer southwest, which left a horseshoe collapse structure on the side of El Chichon: this may have happened as recent as 10 thousand years ago. If there wasn’t then probably only the first scenario is still a risk but this current eruption could be significantly bigger than the last, maybe like the 1814 eruption (VEI 4 or maybe low VEI 5). The idea of the black swan came about largely in response to the 2008 financial crisis. And the winner is (sounds of drums..) Thomas A! I want to change "El Chichonal to "Chichonal" as it was and is still called in the region. It is probably not a self-driving car, and neither could the software do much to prevent the collision – hitting the brakes won’t help. I fully expected the Finns to decimate the US team, but they were able to maintain control of the puck and stay near the Finnish goal all the time. This order is unusual for plinian eruptions although not unique – there are examples at other volcanoes. Activity resumed 2000 BP, with several explosive events within a few hundred years. OT: https://www.space.com/17933-nasa-television-webcasts-live-space-tv.html It wasn’t large enough to devastate huge areas, and never has done eruptions that are global in impact. Heating in the upper troposphere was indeed seen. In hindsight, the activity had started in 1930 when locals reported hearing sounds from the mountain. The impassable roads made it impossible to reach the communities nearest the summit, and people there had to decide for themselves whether to evacuate or not, without reliable information. Three Booster, all landed under their own power. Big earthquake in Taiwan. This fits the minimum DRE, but for the larger amount that is commonly listed there is a ‘missing rock’ problem: the ejecta seem to need more volume than can fit into the hole the eruption generated. There is evidence for at least 11 eruptions during the past 8000 years. The first time I saw that photo, the caption mentioned that the ‘little’ cone just left of center was in fact Klyuchevskaya Sopka, which goes about 16k feet tall…. mannequin nicknamed Starman. I remember hearing something about the magma erupting there now is much less evolved than the 1956 lava and is bordering on basaltic andesite, so maybe the future could be more varied than what has occurred so far. Thanks! There was a small explosion the next day, but otherwise the volcano seemed to be calming down. Big harmonic tremor ongoing on the Sangean Api graph. In the mean time, the limited management showed. My guess is the strange meteor orbital plot is due to the Falcon’s third burn which occurred in the late evening over the SW U.S. about 4 hrs after launch and should have been easily visible by the New Mexico and the Arizona monitoring sites. 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